Let’s Roll the Dice, Bitches!

by tepidparticipation

He has an intimidating 23-29 record through 95 starts. He’s allowed 230 runs in 474.2 innings pitched. In those innings, he’s given up 203 walks and struck out 433 batters. He turned 21 in April.  And I think he should start in the big leagues. This is probably the dumbest baseball related thought I’ve had in a while. Baseball is a game rooted in empirical probabilities and he’s done little to deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as “major league”. Time after time, this kid has walked up to opportunity and reeled backward. Which is why I think it is time for Martin Perez to get a start in the big leagues.

If you are a Ranger’s fan, a sabermatrician, a statistically inclined person, or even a person for whom rational pragmatism is the norm, you should probably stop reading now.  If you’re argumentative, there’s no point in reading any further. I’m not logical. I know this. I also have an unwavering ability to hug risk tighter than the average person.  Yes, this trait has served me well, and yes, it has gotten me into some pickles. But the Rangers aren’t like that. They take what we call “calculated risks”. That is to say, they could throw a 21 year old with loads of promise in for a spot start under the auspices of a “cup of coffee” and I think they should do it.

I am admittedly biased. I probably saw Perez pitch 8 times in Frisco and I saw some of his best starts last year before his promotion to AAA. I’ve seen him sit 93-94 touching 96 with command and two plus off speed pitches. I’ve also seen him have the middling starts where both his mechanics and his effort could be called into question. I’m not basing this suggestion on logic and/or numerical evidence.  It’s just a hunch. No shit. Nothing more. Literally. I sometimes feel like one of the last passionate baseball fans that occasionally believe a player needs a big challenge and a big stage. Sometimes, obviously not all the time, they step up. I have no idea if Perez is one of those players. I understand the risk that he could be permanently damaged, mentally or physically, but I don’t buy it. I also understand the chances of diminishing his trade value and I still believe that a couple of poor MLB starts aren’t going to turn teams off of a 21 year old lefty with a 3 plus pitches. There is a quick tendency to refer to the case of Bryce Harper, who’s AA and AAA numbers were not necessarily begging for a call-up, but the Nats had a couple of injuries and he wedged his way in. I am not alone when I tell you I thought when Zimmerman returned they’d ship Harper back to AAA until he forced the issue. He forced the issue on Sunday night baseball in a packed stadium on national television. You’re as likely to have a graduate school class with a Kardashian as you are to see him in AAA again. Harper is truly a generational talent, but the point is, it happens. It’s a calculated risk, but I’ve seen this organization take a few of those and come up with 7s.  I like risk, and I think to a certain extent, the Rangers do as well. So I’m thinking I’m OK with it. Let Martin start.  Let’s see what happens.

 

Now if you’ll excuse me the hostess just called, “Mr. Tepid, party of one?.”

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